Conservative Rumblings

Congratulations, NASCAR. In another attempt to “level the playing field,” you’ve only succeeded in making it worse.

No, I’m not talking about the insane Car of Tomorrow debacle. We all know how well THAT worked last year, you know, NASCAR’s whole idea of helping the little guy was obviously embodied by one team winning half the races and once proud organizations (Morgan-McClure, not Ginn, mind you) closing their doors.

No, I’m talking about the New Top-35 qualifying rule. This is the one that now dumps all the “go or go home” cars together at the end of a session. Ostensibly, this rule will bring parity to the cars that are on the outside looking in (for brevity’s sake, I’m calling all these non-top-35 cars the ‘Outsiders’ from now on).

In 2007, the war of the Outsiders raged every week; with a dozen fully funded teams fighting for seven or eight spots, hundredths of a second could mean the difference between making the race and packing up and going home. What ended up happening, however, was that when some Outsider teams went early in the session, those that went at the end easily beat the first group’s times and made the races. This sometimes led to what were referred to as “inferior teams” (read: non-Toyotas) beating “well-funded teams” (read: Toyotas).

Of course, the cry of foul came from many directions; some of the Outsider teams themselves (again, read: Toyotas), fans, the insanely drama-addicted ESPN commentators and of course, NASCAR itself began to get a bit worried when their buddies in TRD began to complain that their uber-teams weren’t making the races. That’s speculation on my part…of course.

So, NASCAR, true to form, has had another knee-jerk reaction, and presto, we have a new rule. Now, all the Outsiders will take their qualifying times at the end of every session, which is, for most tracks, when the faster times will be gotten. By grouping all the Outsiders together, they think it’s more “fair.”

What they failed to consider is that now there will be a disproportionate amount of “go or go home” cars qualifying too high in the field. On top of taking away higher starting spots from the cars that actually earned them, it’s dangerous for everyone involved, because you have these slow cars getting artificial boosts in time by virtue of this “bye” to qualify at the end of the session.

We saw at a couple races last year what happens when a really bad car turns a good lap at the end of a session and starts up front, and it’s not pretty.

What NASCAR needed to do was change the top-35 rule to a top-20 rule. Open the field up, take away more protected spots, and then there wouldn’t be so much of a problem. This whole meddling with the random order of qualifying is going to have some serious implications down the road, mark my words on that. Does an Outsider car that wins the pole by virtue of going out late ACTUALLY win that pole? Or is the pole given to the fastest car that was not handed a late draw on a silver platter? As I said, it’s going to be a mess.

Of course, NASCAR will never reduce the top-35 to a top-20, even if it would create more drama and better racing on Fridays. Because as much as NASCAR loves to manufacture drama, there’s only one thing they like more: sponsorship dollars.

Sterling Marlin #14 Waste Management Chevy
Ginn Racing
40th in driver points (1752)
S: 21 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 4 ||| LL: 18

Marlin hasn’t had a competitive year since 2002, and his 2007 was, simply put, painful. He scored a couple of modest 16th place runs in the 14 car before being replaced in July by the erratic Ginn, who later sold his operation to DEI.

He then went on to attempt a few races in the 78 car, and then settled for two field filler runs in the Miccosukee 09 car. He will pilot that car in 7-9 races in 2008, but aside from plate tracks, that 09 is usually quite uncompetitive, so we shouldn’t expect much.

This sort of falls into the Bill Elliott category; nice guy, but he hasn’t run well in almost six years.

2008 prediction: Maybe a couple top-20s, but he’s only running 9 races so points don’t matter

Dale Jarrett #44 UPS Toyota
Michael Waltrip Racing
41st in driver points (1584)
S: 24 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 8 ||| LL: 0

When Jarrett announced he was leaving the team that helped him win a champsionship for an upstart team and upstart manufacturer, I jokingly said that with his new number (44) he was only going to be half as good as he was in the 88. Hardy harr harr.

As it turned out, he was a whole lot worse than half bad. Every time he got lapped by the 88, which was running awful in its own right, Jarrett had to be mentally kicking himself. Once he ran out of champion’s provisionals, he missed a race for the first time in years, and only managed two top-20s all year (which came in two of the last three races, mind you). MWR was not prepared for 2007, and Jarrett’s farewell tour suffered because of it.

In 2008, he’ll race just the first five races of the season and then retire…where he has a broadcasting job with ESPN waiting for him. He’ll replace Rusty Wallace, which is a step in the right direction for the deplorable ESPN coverage. With Wallace out of the booth, perhaps we’ll be able to hear about something other than his son and “draft boost.”

2008 prediction: He’ll be a heck of a lot more enjoyable to listen to in the booth than Rusty Wallace

Bill Elliott #21 Little Debbie/Air Force/Motocraft Ford
Wood Brothers
42nd in driver points (1579)
S: 20 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 2 ||| LL: 5

Awesome Bill from Dawsonville was anything but this year. He was dropped into the 21 car after it fell out of the top-35 in points, and while the team claimed it was for his experience, we all know it was for those precious champion’s provisionals.

They didn’t help much, however; Elliott could not manage anything better than a single top-15 (11th at Michigan), and ultimately the 21 car missed two races and slid to a 36th. place finish in the owner’s points standings. Thus, is not guaranteed a spot at Daytona. You can’t put all the blame on Elliott, but he did drive the car for 20 of its 34 races.

No word on 2008 plans; perhaps he will mercifully retire. He’s a nice guy, but seriously.

Updated 01/25/08: Elliott WILL race in 2008, driving 17 races in the 21 car. Too much to hope for that’d he’d just retire.

2008 prediction: unknown

A.J. Allmendinger #84 Red Bull Toyota
Team Red Bull
43rd in driver points (1165)
S: 17 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 2 ||| LL: 1

Allmendinger’s transition from Champ Car was a rough one; the yellow stripe only made 17 races, and only had three top-20s to show for it. He did drive a lot better in the COT than the old car, however, so you have to believe he will be a bit better next year.

His teammate Brian Vickers did significantly better in roughly the same equipment, so chalk it up to rookie inexperience.

2008 prediction: 25th in points

Michael Waltrip #55 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota
Michael Waltrip Racing
44th in driver points (1149)
S: 14 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 2 ||| DNF: 3 ||| LL: 8

Ah Michael Waltrip.

Waltrip bit off way more than he could chew in 2007, trying to start a brand new team with three cars and unproven Toyota powerplants. The foreign manufacturer figured they would walk into Nextel Cup racing and tear it up like they did in the Craftsman Truck Series, but unfortunately for them, they didn’t even come close, and Waltrip’s team was the poster child of their failures.

Trying to be a team owner and a driver didn’t work out for Waltrip, as his two teams fared better than his #55 car, which was simply terrible all year.

After a huge cheating scandal at Daytona where his team was found with some sort of illegal fuel on his #55 Toyota, Waltrip promptly missed every race from California to Dover (a span of 12 races), and only managed to squeeze out two top tens and a pole in the 14 races he did make all season.

2008 prediction: 31st in points (I’m feeling generous today, plus JGR running Toyotas will help the whole camp).

Jeremy Mayfield #36 360 OTC Toyota / #66 Best Buy Chevy
Bill Davis Racing / Haas CNC Racing
45th in driver points (1126)
S: 17 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 4 ||| LL: 6

After his dustup with Ray Evernham last year, Mayfield landed with Bill Davis Racing and began the year driving their #36 Toyota Camry. Began is a relative term, however, because Mayfield missed the first four races of the year and eight of the first thirteen, immediately putting the team in a huge hole.

Mayfield was eventually removed from the car in October prior to the Phoenix race after failing to post a top-20 finish in 13 starts. He was hired that week by Haas CNC to replace Jeff Green in the 66 car, and he went out and promptly finished 40th in his first race with them.

Jeremy Mayfield was never a huge talent in Cup racing, and he’s all but done now. He only managed five wins when he drove for some of the best in the business, and now that he’s with lower tier teams, he can kiss win number 6 goodbye.

He could end up in either the 66 or the 70 for 2008, depending on how Haas reorganizes those cars. The 70, I think, is a better team, so it would make sense for Haas to give that to the better talent (i.e. Riggs).

2008 prediction: 29th in points (28th if he gets the 70)

Kenny Wallace #78 Furniture Row Chevy
Furniture Row Racing
46th in driver points (1066)
S: 15 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 3 ||| LL: 3

Wallace only made 15 starts this year, stepping out of the 78 car after Watkins Glen in August and then filling in for the injured Ricky Rudd in the 88 Snickers car with Robert Yates Racing.

His best finish of the year came at Bristol in the spring, where he notched a 21st place run. The 78 machine ran out of the top-35 in points the entire year; Joe Nemechek is supposed to be running the car full-time next year, and Wallace has not yet announced any plans.

2008 prediction: unknown

Ward Burton #4 State Water Heaters Chevy
Morgan McClure Motorsports
47th in driver points (939)
S: 16 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 8 ||| LL: 4

The 2002 Daytona 500 winner had a rough go of it in 2007, piloting the underpowered 4 car to only 16 starts. Due to various issues, he only completed half those starts, so it was pretty much a week in and week out set of heartaches for the team and driver. His best finish was easily a 14th in the Brickyard 400, where he started 40th and made an impressive run up through the field. Burton was replaced with Todd Bodine for the last race of the season, and as of right now, there are no indications as to who will be in the seat next year. Whoever is, however, will be in for a long year; the 4 car isn’t winning races any time soon.

Updated 01/24/08: It seems the 4 car is no more.

2008 prediction: If he gets the car full-time, 35th to 40th in points

John Andretti #49 obovo.com Dodge
BAM Racing
48th in driver points (932)
S: 15 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 8 ||| LL: 2

Andretti took over the ill-fated 49 car midway through the season after Mike Bliss failed to qualify it for a number of events, but the latters results weren’t much better. Andretti also filled in for Kyle Petty in the 45 car for several races while Petty commentated for TNT, and again, his results were nothing to pay much attention to. Andretti managed a single top-20 finish (18th at Chicagoland), which was enough to beat Schrader for 48th in points based on the tiebreaker.

Andretti is signed to run the 49 for the full 2008 season, although that is a relative term to use, because the 49 most likely will not make all the races

2008 prediction: 37th in points, misses at least five races