Conservative Rumblings

Bill Elliott #21 Little Debbie/Air Force/Motocraft Ford
Wood Brothers
42nd in driver points (1579)
S: 20 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 2 ||| LL: 5

Awesome Bill from Dawsonville was anything but this year. He was dropped into the 21 car after it fell out of the top-35 in points, and while the team claimed it was for his experience, we all know it was for those precious champion’s provisionals.

They didn’t help much, however; Elliott could not manage anything better than a single top-15 (11th at Michigan), and ultimately the 21 car missed two races and slid to a 36th. place finish in the owner’s points standings. Thus, is not guaranteed a spot at Daytona. You can’t put all the blame on Elliott, but he did drive the car for 20 of its 34 races.

No word on 2008 plans; perhaps he will mercifully retire. He’s a nice guy, but seriously.

Updated 01/25/08: Elliott WILL race in 2008, driving 17 races in the 21 car. Too much to hope for that’d he’d just retire.

2008 prediction: unknown

A.J. Allmendinger #84 Red Bull Toyota
Team Red Bull
43rd in driver points (1165)
S: 17 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 2 ||| LL: 1

Allmendinger’s transition from Champ Car was a rough one; the yellow stripe only made 17 races, and only had three top-20s to show for it. He did drive a lot better in the COT than the old car, however, so you have to believe he will be a bit better next year.

His teammate Brian Vickers did significantly better in roughly the same equipment, so chalk it up to rookie inexperience.

2008 prediction: 25th in points

Michael Waltrip #55 NAPA Auto Parts Toyota
Michael Waltrip Racing
44th in driver points (1149)
S: 14 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 2 ||| DNF: 3 ||| LL: 8

Ah Michael Waltrip.

Waltrip bit off way more than he could chew in 2007, trying to start a brand new team with three cars and unproven Toyota powerplants. The foreign manufacturer figured they would walk into Nextel Cup racing and tear it up like they did in the Craftsman Truck Series, but unfortunately for them, they didn’t even come close, and Waltrip’s team was the poster child of their failures.

Trying to be a team owner and a driver didn’t work out for Waltrip, as his two teams fared better than his #55 car, which was simply terrible all year.

After a huge cheating scandal at Daytona where his team was found with some sort of illegal fuel on his #55 Toyota, Waltrip promptly missed every race from California to Dover (a span of 12 races), and only managed to squeeze out two top tens and a pole in the 14 races he did make all season.

2008 prediction: 31st in points (I’m feeling generous today, plus JGR running Toyotas will help the whole camp).

Jeremy Mayfield #36 360 OTC Toyota / #66 Best Buy Chevy
Bill Davis Racing / Haas CNC Racing
45th in driver points (1126)
S: 17 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 4 ||| LL: 6

After his dustup with Ray Evernham last year, Mayfield landed with Bill Davis Racing and began the year driving their #36 Toyota Camry. Began is a relative term, however, because Mayfield missed the first four races of the year and eight of the first thirteen, immediately putting the team in a huge hole.

Mayfield was eventually removed from the car in October prior to the Phoenix race after failing to post a top-20 finish in 13 starts. He was hired that week by Haas CNC to replace Jeff Green in the 66 car, and he went out and promptly finished 40th in his first race with them.

Jeremy Mayfield was never a huge talent in Cup racing, and he’s all but done now. He only managed five wins when he drove for some of the best in the business, and now that he’s with lower tier teams, he can kiss win number 6 goodbye.

He could end up in either the 66 or the 70 for 2008, depending on how Haas reorganizes those cars. The 70, I think, is a better team, so it would make sense for Haas to give that to the better talent (i.e. Riggs).

2008 prediction: 29th in points (28th if he gets the 70)

Kenny Wallace #78 Furniture Row Chevy
Furniture Row Racing
46th in driver points (1066)
S: 15 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 3 ||| LL: 3

Wallace only made 15 starts this year, stepping out of the 78 car after Watkins Glen in August and then filling in for the injured Ricky Rudd in the 88 Snickers car with Robert Yates Racing.

His best finish of the year came at Bristol in the spring, where he notched a 21st place run. The 78 machine ran out of the top-35 in points the entire year; Joe Nemechek is supposed to be running the car full-time next year, and Wallace has not yet announced any plans.

2008 prediction: unknown

Ward Burton #4 State Water Heaters Chevy
Morgan McClure Motorsports
47th in driver points (939)
S: 16 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 8 ||| LL: 4

The 2002 Daytona 500 winner had a rough go of it in 2007, piloting the underpowered 4 car to only 16 starts. Due to various issues, he only completed half those starts, so it was pretty much a week in and week out set of heartaches for the team and driver. His best finish was easily a 14th in the Brickyard 400, where he started 40th and made an impressive run up through the field. Burton was replaced with Todd Bodine for the last race of the season, and as of right now, there are no indications as to who will be in the seat next year. Whoever is, however, will be in for a long year; the 4 car isn’t winning races any time soon.

Updated 01/24/08: It seems the 4 car is no more.

2008 prediction: If he gets the car full-time, 35th to 40th in points

John Andretti #49 obovo.com Dodge
BAM Racing
48th in driver points (932)
S: 15 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 8 ||| LL: 2

Andretti took over the ill-fated 49 car midway through the season after Mike Bliss failed to qualify it for a number of events, but the latters results weren’t much better. Andretti also filled in for Kyle Petty in the 45 car for several races while Petty commentated for TNT, and again, his results were nothing to pay much attention to. Andretti managed a single top-20 finish (18th at Chicagoland), which was enough to beat Schrader for 48th in points based on the tiebreaker.

Andretti is signed to run the 49 for the full 2008 season, although that is a relative term to use, because the 49 most likely will not make all the races

2008 prediction: 37th in points, misses at least five races

Ken Schrader #21 Little Debbie/Air Force/Motocraft Ford
Wood Brothers
49th in driver points (932)
S: 13 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 4 ||| LL: 3

The 21 car hasn’t been competitive since 2004, and it really showed this year, as Ken Schrader and Bill Elliot both took turns at the wheel, and neither of them made much of a dent into the points battle. Schrader started only 13 races (including the first eight of the season), but once the car fell out of the top-35 in owner’s points (and thus lost a guaranteed starting spot), the team placed Bill Elliot in the car to use his champion’s provisional. Ok, ok…they claimed it was not to use the provisional, it was to use his “skills,” but let’s not kid ourselves.

Schrader’s best show was at Martinsville in the spring, where he finished 19th. It’s safe to say that he is past his prime in racing, and probably will not have a full-time ride in 2008. He may get some work in the 21, but I consider it very unlikely that he’ll run much more than he did this year.

2008 prediction: He’ll probably run part time, if at all, so no points prediction. He’ll run relatively well at the short tracks if he gets a ride.

Regan Smith #01 US Army Chevrolet
Dale Earnhardt, Inc
50th in driver points (516)
S: 7 ||| W: 0 ||| T5: 0 ||| T10: 0 ||| DNF: 0 ||| LL: 1

Smith drove a part-time schedule in 2007, starting just seven races in the 01 Chevrolet in order to maintain his rookie status for 2008. He managed to pick up two top-25 finishes (25th at spring Bristol and 24th at the spring Talladega race a month later) and a top-10 start at Watkins Glen, but beyond that, he was invisible. Considering that popping into a Cup car once a month is not exactly an easy job, especially for a rookie, his performance means nothing good or bad. The theory is that he got his kinks out this year and will make a run for ROTY in 2008. He managed to finish every race he entered, however, which points to a solid driver who knows you have to finish to finish well.

As mentioned, Smith is still eligible for rookie status next year, and will take over the 01 full-time as Martin and Aric Almirola will split time in the 8 car vacated by Dale Earnhardt, Jr.

2008 prediction: 19th in points, 2nd in ROTY behind Patrick Carpentier

Sparks flew and sheet metal exploded across the track all night, but the biggest story of the race for many fans was not the wild red-flag inducing racing at Richmond International Raceway that marked the 26th race of the Nextel Cup season. Instead, many fans were distraught that for the second time in three years, NASCAR’s most popular driver Dale Earnhardt Jr. will miss the 10-race “Chase for the Cup.” The Chase, NASCAR’s version of the playoffs, begins next week at New Hampshire and lasts the final ten races of the season.

After blowing in a motor in the final qualifying race at Richmond, Earnhardt ended up over 200 points behind Kevin Harvick, who took the final transfer spot in the Chase by virtue of his 12th place position in the standings.

That was the story that most fans fell asleep to Saturday night. Harvick fans rejoiced, and Junior fans looked forward to next year, when the driver will join Hendrick Motorsports, arguably the strongest team in NASCAR.

Hours after the race ended, however, NASCAR put out a press release to all major news organizations that the 12-man Chase was not the end-all result of the final race of the regular season. The release stated that a “Lucky 13” rule was a part of the original set of rules governing the changes to this year’s format, and by virtue of that rule, Earnhardt Jr., who ended up 13th in the standings, will now be allowed to compete for the championship.

NASCAR spokesman Ramsey Poston defended the move, stating that the “Lucky 13” rule has been in existence since the new Chase format was announced earlier this year, and that the rule would have been used for “any driver,” not just Junior, who is, coincidently, the most popular driver in NASCAR.

After Earnhardt and superstar Jeff Gordon missed the Chase in 2005 and defending champion Tony Stewart missed the Chase last year, NASCAR widened the field from 10-12 this year, prompting many critics to argue that the new rule was simply a buffer to make sure the superstars (and thus, super-sponsors) made the final 10 race playoff.

The twelve drivers were apparently not enough for NASCAR; Poston further elaborated on the “Lucky 13” rule, stating that they were also looking into possible wild card entries to the Chase next year, including a fan vote, a lottery system, a reward for poles, starts, and attempts and a “gimme” for those with many DNFs. Two final means of qualifying are already approved and will be used next year, and they include country of birth and car manufacturer, two attributes that would insure that the highest driver in the standings from every country and the highest ranked car of each manufacturer would also be present in the Chase. The latter rule would seem to be a huge boon to Toyota, the latest entry into NASCAR Cup racing, which has struggled mightily to simply make races, much less contend for wins and championships.

Poston was asked if that sort of attitude towards the Chase would dilute the format, but he declined to comment, stating that, “Emperor France has proclaimed that these changes will take effect next year, and under no circumstances will I discuss these additions with anyone outside of NASCAR leadership, nor will I allow some outside organization to influence how we run our series. No one owns us! No one!”

Poston delivered his final comment from the seat of his brand new 2008 Toyota Land Cruiser before speeding away from the track.