Alabama - Safe R Hold Alaska - Miller 40%, McAdams 29%, Murkowski 22% (GOP Hold) Arizona - Safe R Hold Arkansas - Boozman 61%, Lincoln 33% (GOP Pickup) California - Boxer 51%, Fiorina 46% (Democrat Hold) Colorado - Buck 50%, Bennett 48% (GOP Pickup) Connecticut - Blumenthal 52%, McMahon 47% (Democrat Hold) Delaware - Coons 57%, O’Donnell 40% (Democrat Hold) Florida - Rubio 52%, Crist 26%, Meek 18% (GOP Hold) Georgia - Safe R Hold Hawaii - Safe D Hold Idaho - Safe R Hold Illinois - Kirk 48%, Giannoulias 47% (GOP Pickup) Indiana - Coats 59%, Ellsworth 39% (GOP Pickup) Iowa - Safe R Hold Kansas - Safe R Hold Kentucky - Paul 54%, Conway 43% (GOP Hold) Louisiana - Safe R Hold Maryland - Safe D Hold Missouri - Blunt 51%, Carnahan 48% (GOP Hold) N. Hampshire - Ayotte 50%, Hodes 47% (GOP Hold) Nevada - Angle 48%, Reid 48% (GOP Pickup) New York Safe D Hold New York (S) - Safe D Hold North Carolina - Safe R Hold North Dakota - Hoeven 69%, Potter 29% (GOP Pickup) Ohio - Portman 56%, Fisher 33% (GOP Hold) Oklahoma - Safe R Hold Oregon - Safe D Hold Pennsylvania - Toomy 51%, Sestak 45% (GOP Pickup) South Carolina - Safe R Hold South Dakota - Safe R Hold Utah - Safe R Hold Vermont - Safe D Hold Washington - Rossi 49%, Murray 47% (GOP Pickup) West Virginia - Raese 49%, Manchin 47% (GOP Pickup) Wisconsin - Johnson 55%, Feingold 43% (GOP Pickup)
Now that we’ve established that the GOP will retain all 41 seats we currently hold, it’s time to wrap our giant bear paws around the juicy prey: Democrat seats that will turn on Election Day.
Thanks to the Obama Doctrine of alienating the American public and calling them stupid at every turn (and the whole ‘ramming stuff down our throats’ thing) there are many more Senate seats in play than should be this year. In general, midterms are a referendum on the sitting administration, but everything has taken on a special flavor this year as Obama has not been like any other president in history. He’s been more radical, more far reaching and more arrogant, and it’s going to cost his party dearly. GOP and independent voters will be out in force to take away his absolute power in D.C. and many disillusioned Democrats will sit at home to protest the fact that Obama hasn’t paid their gas or their mortgage and that we’re not all riding flying unicorns that use rainbows for fuel when they head to the welfare office to get food stamps.
Anyway.
The following are in order of likelihood to flip…
North Dakota
No contest…retiring Byron Dorgan did us a ridiculous favor, and this one was over before it started for John Hoeven over Tracy Potter. Solid pickup.
Hoeven 69%, Potter 29%
Arkansas
Buh-bye, Blanche Lincoln. You knew her days were numbered awhile ago, and after withstanding a bitter primary fight, she’s going to go down with far less resistance in the general election as John Boozman thoroughly embarrasses her and instantly becomes the U.S. Senator with the coolest name. Solid pickup.
Boozman 61%, Lincoln 33%
Indiana
Another retiring Dem who did us a favor by getting out of the way. Evan Bayh’s mysterious abandonment of a sure Dem hold gives us a sure GOP pickup as Dan Coats has de-fossilized himself and come out of cryogenic freezing to regain his old Senate seat. It should be an easy race, despite the fact he spent his first three hours of newly found consciousness asking where the milkman was and if the Washington Senators ever won the World Series. I kid, I kid…Coats isn’t that old. It’s just that many technologies have been invented since he last walked the earth. Such as fire. Solid pickup.
Coats 59%, Ellsworth 39%
Wisconsin
Thought to be completely out of reach even a few months ago, the rising tide of conservatism has claimed another Democrat incumbent, as sneaky Russ Feingold is very likely to receive a beating at the hand of businessman Ron Johnson. Likely pickup.
Johnson 55%, Feingold, 43%
Pennsylvania
I don’t buy the media calling this a toss-up. Toomey has been leading and will continue to lead right through Election Day, capping off a great GOP run for Arlen Specter’s old seat. After the 287 year old Specter was faced with the…err…specter…of losing the GOP primary, he quickly cut a deal to switch parties and then promptly lost the Democratic primary. His opponent, lunatic whiner Joe Sestak (you know, the guy the White House illegally offered a job to so he would drop out of the race and let Specter win), is now going to lose the seat completely to conservative Toomey. Likely pickup.
Toomey 51%, Sestak 45%
Colorado
Ken Buck is another of the conservative candidates for Senate I have a lot of faith in…this race has been tougher than it looked on the outset, mostly due to Colorado’s fierce purple streak, but I think this one will pull red when it matters (the recent presidential flux of this state should have little effect on a midterm). Leans pickup.
Buck 50%, Bennet 48%
Illinois
A battle of horrible vs even more horrible. I hate this race. I’ve met both Mark Kirk and Alexi Giannoulias, and neither impresses me. Alexi shrugged me off when I said no, he could not count on my vote because he gave loans to mobsters, and Kirk could barely form a coherent sentence to defend his stupid vote for Cap and Tax. Unfortunately one of these men must win. I feel the least damage will be caused by Kirk, mostly because he’ll likely prove to be a dynastically useless Senator whose only purpose in life is to fill in another “R” on our side of the fence. If there was a “none of the above” option, it would win in a landslide. I really do not like Illinois politics. Leans pickup.
Kirk 48%, Giannoulias 47%
West Virginia
Polling has hopped back and forth on this one, and quite frankly I don’t think the GOP focused on it until too late. This seat was thought to be a sure Dem hold considering it was occupied by the now deceased former KKK member Robert Byrd, but businessman John Raese has made a good race of it. It’s a tough row to hoe in this state for GOP as of late, but a huge surge of dislike for Obama make this, I think, the final good chance for a pickup on this list. Leans pickup.
Raese 49%, Manchin 47%
Nevada
Oh, Sharron Angle. Like Rand Paul, this is another tea party run gone amok. Danny Tarkantanian would have been a far better candidate, but the radical insurgents on the right pushed Angle ahead and for awhile it looked like we were completely hosed on this race. Never one to disappoint, though, Harry Reid has gone out and made a fool of himself in public on numerous occasions, including his awesome “I saved the world” speech, and this race is in spitting distance now. I think Angle could win, but it will be ridiculously close….which means the SEIU will probably steal it. Toss up.
Angle 48%, Reid 47.5%
Washington
How this one is even a race is beyond me…not that I don’t like Dino Rossi, but the fact that Patty Murray could potentially lose a race she was leading by 20 points is hilarious to me. It’s going to be a long night counting ballots in Washington, and honestly, I’m going to say turnout pulls this out for Rossi. Toss up.
Rossi 49%, Murray 47%
California
Even political novices know that California is a bastion of liberalism. Those electoral votes are the basis of any Democratic campaign, and even the Republicans in the golden state would be hardcore libs in the heartland of America. Thus, the Senate races here aren’t even on the radar most years. Thankfully for us, this is not most years. Incompetent SENATOR Boxer (she worked SO hard for that title, you know), has had to inexplicably defend herself against Carly “Demon Sheep” Fiorina, and quite frankly the whole race has bordered on the absurd since it never should have existed. I’ve enjoyed seeing the Democrats squirm and waste money on what should have been a sure hold, but I don’t think the GOP can pull this one out. Likely hold.
Boxer 51%, Fiorina 46%
Connecticut
The best thing Chris Dodd, he of the banking crisis and partner to Banking Queen Bawney Fwank in the housing bubble, ever did for the Democrats was quit this race. Blumenthal is a shoe in to hold off self-funder and WWE founder Linda McMahon. Safe hold.
Blumenthal 52%, McMahon 47%
Delaware
“I’m not a witch!” Really nothing else to say about this abysmal race. Fiorina’s Demon Sheep ad had the cake for “worst GOP campaign ad of the year” until O’Donnell’s came out featuring the above quote as the opening vignette of the piece. A sure pickup with Mike Castle was destroyed by shortsighted tea party banner wavers. If this race costs us the Senate, I will be thoroughly disappointed. I predict 51 seats, but that’s counting a lot of big IFS in the toss ups. Honestly, if O’Donnell won this race, it would be the biggest upset in American politics since Aaron Burr was dueling folks on the south lawn. Safe hold.
Unlike the House, the Senate is still very much in play for both sides; all that’s left to be decided in the former is the margin of GOP victory (I’m sitting on 63 seats, personally).
The Senate was thought to be out of reach for the GOP, since we need 10 seats to take a majority, but even that could be attained given the wave of anti-Obama sentiment sweeping the country. The Senate has been a serious sticking point for the Obama administration and something he would, quite frankly, simply abolish if given the power. Obama has blamed the filibuster and the Senate GOP minority for pretty much everything from bills not getting passed to his morning coffee being cold. To put things in perspective, though, he had an unbeatable super majority for all of 2009 (until Scott Brown’s win earlier this year gave us 41 seats) and he still couldn’t get anything done (not to mention the fact that Obama loved the filibuster as a Senator).
The contentious nature of the Senate and the number of rules that govern how the body acts makes each seat absolutely critical. Here are my predictions for how we’ll fare November 2.
First, Solid GOP holds where there really isn’t a race:
Alabama - Shelby by 32
Arizona – McCain by 18
Georgia – Isakson by 29
Idaho – Crapo by 37
Iowa – Grassley by 17
Kansas – Moran by 34
Louisiana – Vitter by 21
North Carolina – Burr by 15
Oklahoma – Coburn by 39
South Carolina – DeMint by 41
(how this isn’t 100-0 when the Democrat is one Alvin Greene I have no idea)
South Dakota – John Thune by 40
Utah – Mike Lee by 29
With 23 GOP seats not up for re-election, that gives us 35 total seats held for sure. Now, we get a little stickier…we have a number of states we need to hold that the races are a little murkier.
Leans GOP (likely hold):
Alaska
Thanks to Lisa Murkowski and her stupid selfishness of running a write-in campaign, this nasty race isn’t a runaway for us. Murkowski couldn’t care less for the residents of Alaska or even the country itself. All she wants is to remain in power. I believe, though, that the polls are wildly overstating her support. Write-in candidates sound quaint in theory and folks will mention them on the phone, but realistically I don’t think she has a shot of winning. She’s going to damage Joe Miller, but hopefully not enough to cost him the race.
Final prediction: Miller 40%, McAdams 29%, Murkowski 22%
Florida
I probably could have put this under solid hold, but I wanted to write a bit about it. This is the second ugly primary implosion of the year, as moderate Obama-lover Charlie Crist quit the GOP primary and ran as an independent after it became clear Marco Rubio was going to flat-out embarrass him (paging Lisa Murkowski, you have a kindred spirit). This race was close for a few weeks, which is why I include it here, but recent polling shows Rubio pulling a big lead. Should be held without a problem.
Final prediction: Rubio 52%, Crist 26%, Meek 18%
Kentucky
Good old Kentucky…this was the first primary race of the year I had a bit of a meltdown about on Twitter, since the tea party flexed its sizable muscles and pushed through libertarian Rand Paul over the establishment pick Trey Grayson. This race is closer than it should be, thanks in large part to Paul being, well, CRAZY. Did people realize who his father was? Yes, that Ron Paul. He’s made missteps and had a lot of his old quotes brought up and made what should have been a ridiculously easy hold into a competitive race at points. It’s highly unfortunate, but not the worst race in this list by far.
Final prediction: Paul 54%, Conway 43%
Missouri
Congressmen Roy Blunt is running against one of the most annoying Democrat candidates of the year, Robin Carnahan. Seriously, listen to the latter talk. It’s horrible. Unfortunately, this race isn’t about speech patterns and more about policy, and in a solid purple state it’s a close race to hold retiring GOP Senator Kit Bond’s seat. I want it noted, though, that Blunt is another huge improvement over a retiring RINO. Likely hold.
Final prediction: Blunt 51%, Carnahan 48%
New Hampshire
This has been a weird race because no candidate has pulled very far ahead, but the race also hasn’t had a lot of publicity or even been mentioned in many charts of analysis. It just appears as likely GOP and no one gives it much color. Republican Kelly Ayotte has held a lead over Democrat Paul Hodes for several months, but this state is odd enough that if I were forced to choose one GOP seat that had even the slimmest chance of changing on election day, this would be it.
Final prediction: Ayotte 50%, Hodes 47%
Ohio
Ohio is a great race, because it will be filling the seat of retiring faux-Republican George Voinovich. Between him and the Bobbsy Twins in Maine, the Democrats found much sympathy for their cause on our side of the aisle. This race features Rob Portman, a former Congressmen with a rather large lead over Democrat Lee Fisher. This is another race that probably could be solid hold, but the polling was closer earlier this year, and Ohio is a funny state. But, I still predict a hold.
Final prediction: Portman 56%, Fisher 33%
Overall holds: 18 of 18.
Honestly, this is huge for the GOP. There are a couple of seats in Democrat states that could have been in danger, but a combination of good candidates, anti-Obama momentum and hard campaigning has led to what looks like a sweep of all currently held GOP seats. As it’s been for the last 9 months, we’re completely on the offensive.
Just with GOP holds, we should end the night with 41 seats, which means 10 Democrat seats need to be flipped to take the majority. Uphill battle? Sure. Impossible? No.
The Illinois primary is TODAY! If you live in the Land of Lincoln, please get out and vote! There are a number of EXTREMELY important Republican races that require your attention, including:
Illinois Governor
A wide open GOP field is unfortunately filled with landmines. Former IL GOP party chair Andy McKenna ran us into the ground statewide and is a useless candidate, Kirk Dillard appeared in a pro-Obama campaign commercial and sees no problem with tax hikes, Jim Ryan is a member of the currently corrupt IL government and Bill Brady is just a moderate.
What’s left are Human Events contributor and former Jack Ryan campaign manager Dan Proft and businessman Adam Andrzejewski. Both are solid candidates for the general election in my book. I’m endorsing Proft but would support Andrzejewski just the same in the general election.
Locally, I also have to plug my district:
Illinois 14th. Congressional District
In order to challenge Democrat Bill Foster in November, we need a solid candidate. That makes the primary race a simple choice: Randy Hultgren, a State Senator with an excellent record in Springfield, is a far superior choice to Ethan Hastert, son of former 14th. mainstay Denny Hastert. Hastert is a pureblood member of the entitlement brigade. He has little experience, and is running simply on the “Hastert seat” mantra, that he’s entitled to it because of his father’s long (but albeit tainted) tenure in the district. Now, should Hastert win, I’ll support him in the general, because his views are very similar to Hultgren’s. I just think he lacks the experience and skills necessary to mount a successful challenge to Foster.
I endorse Randy Hultgren for the 14th Congressional District.
Other local Illinois endorsements:
Chris Lauzen, 25th. Illinois Senatorial
Kay Hatcher, 50th. Illinois Representative District
Jim Dodge, Illinois Comptroller
David Rickert, Kane County Treasurer
L. Robert Russell, Kane County Sheriff
Mary Schostok, Judge of the Appellate Court (2nd Judicial)
Great video of VA gubernatorial candidate Creigh Deeds trying (and utterly failing) to dodge questions about new taxes in the state.
I love how he keeps repeating himself over and over; he fawns over the term “general fund” like it’s a furry little puppy. He should be easy picking if the VA GOP handles this right.
With Cap and Tax and universal deathcare on the table, and an ineffective porkulus proving to be a massive failure as unemployment skyrockets, it seems voters may finally be souring to the Democrats, according to the latest set of Rasmussen polling data.
Republican candidates continue to lead on the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot as Democrats fall to their lowest level of support among voters in recent years.
A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 40% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 37% would choose the Democratic candidate.
Support for both parties dropped one point over the past week, with Democrats reaching their lowest level support in over two years of polling. Support for Republican candidates is just one point below its highest level over that same time period.
I am cautiously optimistic about this; voters have short memories. I can only hope this trend hangs on until the 2010 election and voters remember how badly the Democrats have been destroying the economy and endangering their freedoms.
This is a stunning story that is receiving little to no mainstream media coverage outside of Fox News. Obama has moved the operations for the U.S. Census into the White House, and essentially handed the reigns of the project to none other than his Chief of Staff, Chicago insider Rahm Emanuel.
If this had happened under Bush’s watch, the equivalent would have been putting Karl Rove in charge of redistricting. I’m sure the media would have had a field day on that; it would have been the lead story for weeks. But, since it’s King Obama and he’s giving it to his corrupt little minions, it’s all OK.
Dear Leader would never lead us wrong, the media will say. It’s just fine if his cronies redistrict every state into absurd zigzags in order to take over an uncountable number of battleground districts by moving Democratic-voting population centers within their boundaries.
After all, it’s all part of Comrade Obama’s plan for America. It’s Change We Can Believe In.
The GOP wants to use exact headcounts of districts. The Democrats want to use some convoluted process of sampling and estimating. The Constitution mandates exact headcounts.
How hard is this to understand?
The Census Bureau does not need to be politically affiliated. It needs to be have an unbiased look at the population, and should not be wielded as a tool to affect future elections.
“I am disturbed by reports that control of the traditionally nonpartisan Census Bureau is being stripped from the Commerce Department and placed with the White House staff. This action appears to be motivated by politics, rather than the interests of our country, and the burden will be on the new administration to prove otherwise during Senator Gregg’s confirmation hearings. The United States Census should remain independent of politics; it should not be directed by political operatives working out of the White House.”
A lifetime Chicago politician who sends dead fish in the mail to his political enemies, now in charge of shaping how hundreds of millions of American citizens are represented in Congress? What could POSSIBLY go wrong?
Gee, why would this be such a priority? I don’t know, maybe the fact that the Census will have a MONSTROUS impact on voting results? Redistricting could enable the Democrats to massacre the current district setup and steal innumerable districts from the Republicans.
After The Obamessiah appointed Gregg to the Commerce Secretary post in an attempt to ruin the GOP Senate count and it didn’t work, he needed to find some way to gain political power out of the situation. Enter the Obamacensus, which, under the watchful eye of Rahm Emanuel, should provide the Democrats with a rather large chance to increase their seats in 2010 without having to fire a single shot.
He defeated Katon Dawson 91-77 on the sixth ballot.
Some speech highlights:
“To Americans who believe in the future of this country…to those who stand in difference with us. It’s time for something completely different. We’re gonna bring this party to every corner, to every boardroom, to every community, and we’re gonna say to every friend and foe alike, we want you to be a part of us, and to those of you who wish to obstruct…get ready to get knocked over.” - Michael Steele
“We stand proud as the conservative party of the United States.” - Michael Steele
“We will cede no ground to anyone on matters of principle.” - Michael Steele
“God bless you and God bless our party.” - Michael Steele
He can’t possibly be worse than Duncan’s disastrous reign. He just needs to get off his “let’s apologize for Katrina” bandwagon and change his gun control stance and he’ll be a pretty dang good chairman.
Time to start the rebuilding process and take back the House in 2010!
